Isn't it naive to think that offshore drilling or ANWR or will solve our energy problems?

Offshore drilling:
"The projections in the OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017. Total domestic production of crude oil from 2012 through 2030 in the OCS access case is projected to be 1.6 percent higher than in the reference case, and 3 percent higher in 2030 alone, at 5.6 million barrels per day. For the lower 48 OCS, annual crude oil production in 2030 is projected to be 7 percent higher—2.4 million barrels per day in the OCS access case compared with 2.2 million barrels per day in the reference case (Figure 20). BECAUSE OIL PRICES ARE DETERMINED ON THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET, HOWEVER, ANY IMPACT ON AVERAGE WELLHEAD PRICES IS EXPECTED TO BE INSIGNIFICANT."

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html

ANWR:
"With respect to the world oil price impact, projected ANWR oil production constitutes between 0.4 and 1.2 percent of total world oil consumption in 2030, based on the low and high resource cases, respectively.17 Consequently, ANWR oil production is not projected to have a large impact on world oil prices. Relative to the AEO2008 reference case, ANWR oil production is projected to have its largest oil price reduction impacts as follows: a reduction in low-sulfur, light (LSL) crude oil18 prices of {content}.41 per barrel (2006 dollars) in 2026 in the low oil resource case, {content}.75 per barrel in 2025 in the mean oil resource case, and .44 per barrel in 2027 in the high oil resource case. Assuming that world oil markets continue to work as they do today, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could neutralize any potential price impact of ANWR oil production by reducing its oil exports by an equal amount."

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/anwr/pdf/sroiaf(2008)03.pdf

Please note the dates on these studies, both were done under the Bush administration.

Given these findings, can someone please explain to me how increased drilling in these areas is going to solve our gas prices and make us energy independent? The bottom line is that we consume far too much for this to be a realistic solution. Please cite your sources if you disagree, this issue is a little bit too complicated for bumper sticker politics like "drill baby drill."
"Progressives are thieves": Both studies take the grade of oil into account. Even so, the projected effect on market prices is negligible.
Donald: I do agree with some of your points about natural gas, however: "Also the prospect of new oil supplies motivates the Middle eastern oil cartel to produce more oil for the market to maintain their market share."

I strongly disagree with that statement. OPEC has an interest in making sure that prices stay high, and as history has shown they will readily decrease output in order to maintain high prices whenever needed.

12 Responses to “Isn't it naive to think that offshore drilling or ANWR or will solve our energy problems?”

  1. ndmagicman Says:

    It is naive.
    Study after study has shown that at best we can reduce our imports of foreign oil but the idea that by drilling alone we could become completely independent of foreign oil imports is absurd.
    It has to be a two fold solution.
    Increased US production is needed and is currently going on. Many areas of the US are showing huge increases in oil and natural gas production. Another deep water permit was just issued for the Gulf to add to the over 2,000 wells already there.
    And there has to be a push to find alternative, renewable sources of energy. All agree that oil reserves will not last indefinitely and now is the time to start researching and finding new sources.

  2. Carol Says:

    YES, not to mention short-sighted as well.

  3. g Says:

    I’m sure they’ll just say that’s the "gubbamint try’n to keep us away for dat oil"

  4. Shovel Ready Says:

    America needs to develop domestic energy sources for coal, natural gas, and oil. It also needs to build about 100 nuclear power plants. And it needs to quit shoveling money at bogus green technologies immediately.

  5. Vwwvvvwvv Wwvvwwvw Says:

    I suppose if you want to look at it that way. Then again the first step in a journey of a thousand miles does not have a significant affect on the trip.

  6. cornbread_oracle Says:

    I consider it naive to think that domestic drilling CAN’T help.

  7. Progressives are thieves Says:

    It will do more than buying windmills from GE.

    Also, consider the fact that oil is not just oil. There are different grades used for different purposes. North Sea oil is very clean and light weight best used for lubricants, etc…
    Gas usually uses the lowest grades of oil. The type of crude will decide how it is used and what impact it will have on gas prices.

  8. Chupate esa! Says:

    They need to tap that as soon as possible and before water becomes the source of energy. Anyone now can do a HHO with a copy of D9.PDF or buy it on ebay…

    http://pesn.com/2007/09/29/9500450_BobBoyce_Electrolizer_Plans/d9.pdf
    http://cgi.ebay.com/HHO-Hydrogen-Generator-6-Cell-Complete-Kit-Plus-DEMSE_W0QQitemZ250784716062QQcategoryZ166664QQcmdZViewItemQQ_trksidZp4340.m263QQ_trkparmsZalgo%3DSIC%26its%3DI%252BC%26itu%3DUCI%252BIA%252BUA%252BFICS%252BUFI%26otn%3D10%26pmod%3D250782647080%26ps%3D63%26clkid%3D7593860222977099418
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OS_4ZV-dHA
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1MeR4My6XA

  9. How_Would_I_Know Says:

    People have been using the "but it won’t start producing for years" argument for decades now. If we hadn’t been so shortsighted in the 1990s, these fields would be up to full production now.

    Yes it will take time to get them going, which is why it’s important to start now.. instead of waiting.

  10. Your Mamma Says:

    The Republicans have been fighting to get liberals to have a rationale energy policy for 2 decades. All liberals bring to the table is excuses why something can’t be done and the answer is "conserve" or <insert some impractical-expensive technology>.

  11. Donald Says:

    The prospect of new supplies of oil coming into the market depresses oil prices.

    Also the prospect of new oil supplies motivates the Middle eastern oil cartel to produce more oil for the market to maintain their market share.

    The increased supply of oil from the Middle Eastern oil cartel further depress oil prices.

    In addition natural gas can be used as a motor fuel for gasoline engines.

    Honda produces a car that is designed to run on gasoline or natural gas at he flip of a switch on the dashboard

    Ford produced a Ford Crown Victoria model that was designed to run on gasoline or natural gas with a flip of a switch on the dashboard

    Ford discontinued that model in 2004 due to lack of consumer demand.

    Natural gas has a cost of less than half the cost of gasoline for the same energy content

    As gasoline prices increase the demand for automobiles that can run on gasoline and natural gas will increase.

    In The United States of America we have enormous supplies of natural gas. That is the reason that natural gas is so cheap

    Many commercial vehicles, taxis and buses are set up tp run on Compressed natural gas because natural gas is much cheaper for the same energy content as gasoline

    Also natural gas is much cleaner than gasoline.

    That reduces maintenance costs and pollutants.

    If the Federal government were to specify that all government vehicles that are purchased must be set up to run on both natural gas and gasoline, the government demand alone would be sufficient for ford and the other vehicle manufacturers to offer models that can run on both gasoline and Compressed natural gas

    The result would be that the Federal Government cost for fuel would be cut in half and there would be natural gas vehicles available on the market again

    That would reduce the demand for gasoline and also reduce the amount of pollutants released to the atmosphere

    That would also reduce oil imports to The United States of America, and help our balance of payments.

    It is naive to clim that we do not need to drill for more oil and natural gas

    People need to drive to work today.

    The time line for the alternative fuels that are actually affordable is 20 to 30 years out

    The alternative fuels such as bio diesel are very expensive to produce

    The alternative fuels are far too expensive for most Americans to be able to afford those fuels today.

    People need affordable fuel today. People cannot wait the 20 to 30 years before the so called alternative fuels such as bio diesel become affordable.

    (Edit to Asker) ) With respect to your statement that OPEC will readily decrease output in order to maintain high prices when ever needed, that is no longer the case.

    Many members of OPEC are in financial difficulty themselves and can no longer afford the food subsidies and other subsidies that their populations have come to expect. That is the reason that we are seeing riots and revolutions in many of the Middle Eastern Countries.

    Many of the members of OPEC have a history of "cheating" and delivering more than their allotment of oil to the market when they need money.

    Many of the members of OPEC will "cheat" and deliver more oil to the market at lower prices if necessary when they need money to subsidize their populations and keep their populations happy.

    The alternative for many of the dictators in the Middle East is riots revolutions and loss of power for those dictators.

    I guarantee those dictators will sell as much oil as they must to get the money that the need to keep their power.

  12. John Says:

    I saw a link that pretty much stated that we are past the tipping point on oil now — specifically that demand for oil after this year is going to skyrocket while the supply of oil will be constant. I think this was done by a NASA PhD, also he encouraged alternative forms of energy because the price of oil is going to skyrocket in the next twenty years.