what do you think of british petroleum as a long term investment?

i know bad news is coming out all of the time on bp. years ago exxon has
the valdez problem and came back strong. thank you y/a people.

6 Responses to “what do you think of british petroleum as a long term investment?”

  1. Net Advisor™ Says:

    First you need to know what you may be investing in.

    "British Petroleum" does not exist.
    The company changed its name to BP in 2001.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BP#Corporate_branding

    The Exxon case is not the same as BP. Just because both are oil companies and both spilled oil does not mean the cases are the same. They are radically different.

    1. Exxon Valdez was a ship that their drunk captain ran aground and a fixed maximum amount of oil came out of ONE ship.

    2. BP’s oil spill is coming directly from the earth, and who knows how much oil is there.

    "BP pegs spill at worst-case 100,000 bpd (Barrels per day)" (Reuters).
    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1416392020100621

    This number far exceeds all the current estimates and is up 99,000 bpd from the initial problem. BP really doesn’t know how much oil is gushing either.

    06-20-2010
    "UPDATE-2 BP Risk Assessment" (6 page report)
    http://netadvisor.wordpress.com/2010/06/20/update-2-bp-risk-assessment/

    06-09-2010
    "BP May Be at Bankruptcy Risk"
    http://netadvisor.wordpress.com/2010/06/09/bp-may-be-at-bankruptcy-risk/

    Disclosure: Not currently holding any BP or other oil positions. This may change in the future without notice. Had been aggressively bearish on BP in the past and closed those short potions last week before the stock had a technical bounce. Was short term long on technical bounce and out of that last week.

    This is a highly speculative trade, no matter how you slice it.

  2. J Says:

    I was actually wondering the same thing, since their stock is down to a really cheap price, I was thinking of buying some.

    I mean why not, it’s only money, you can make more right?!?

  3. MVD34 Says:

    still iffy at the moment — too risky in my opinion to buy the stock although I followed the big boys into select short term BP debt.

    It seems unlikely — for a more complex version of your short analysis — that BP will go under. It is a very (very) profitable company. A couple of hundred billion dollars in long term losses should not sink the ship. However, short term volatility could get even worse between now and whenever the disaster turns the corner into recovery. In addition, public opinion matters. It seems reasonable to assume that BP will have to reinvent itself and that might be more complicated in this case than it was for Exxon in the 1990’s.

    (Disclosure: I one XOM in my long term portfolios. I own BP bonds in my speculative portfolio)

  4. Thom Says:

    It’s a pretty risky stock and I think short term there could most definitely be more downside. Long-Term I think it’s probably not a bad bet because there’s no question that BP is worth more than the market is valuing it at currently. On other hand BP does not have a couple hundred billion dollars to burn through…contrary to popular belief. If ExxonMobil was to liquidate everything they had they could blow a couple hundred billion dollars but they would not longer exist aftewards. It’s kind of annoying to me how people have lost their reality on how big numbers are. I guess it’s the $13 trillion deficit we have.

  5. Ben19999 Says:

    This is the trendy stock to buy. Everyone and their mother is asking the same question you are now asking. Personally, I wouldn’t do it. You need to ask yourself these questions before buying the stock

    1. Do I know enough about BP as a company?
    2. Are there better companies out there with less risk?
    3. Am I able to buy at least a hundred shares of BP?

    If you’re not able to buy at least 100 shares, its pointless to even argue whether you should make a purchase or not. They cut the dividend and you will be holding this company for many years to see it go back up, if it goes back up.

    GM looked like a steal at $8 a few years ago. It went to zero. There were better deals out there on less-risky companies. Learn from history and don’t listen to what ‘everyone’ is doing.

  6. zuma Says:

    There are to many Unknowns, until

    News in August will change everyone’s opinion